Slowing vaccination rates push back PCCI’s herd immunity forecast for Dallas County

Update on Dallas County Reaching COVID Herd Immunity From PCCI CEO Steve Miff

In February, Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) forecast that Dallas County had an opportunity to reach COVID herd immunity by mid-June. However, due to slowing vaccination rate, we have updated our forecast of Dallas County reaching the COVID herd immunity threshold to late-June with the possibility of falling back even further into July.

PCCI’s herd immunity forecasts in February was based on 80 percent of the county’s residents either having recovered from COVID-19 or having received vaccinations.

Today, herd immunity for the county is at 64 percent. While is represents progress, vaccination rates have slowed which is having a negative effect on our herd immunity forecast. The key driver making vaccine rates to regress include vaccine hesitancy and uptake, particularly in the working population.

While we’ve made great progress and to date vaccinated over 35% of the Dallas County population, including more than 73 percent of residents over 65 years old, the vaccination rates have been dropping, despite ample supply of vaccines and no wait times. In recent weeks, we’ve been averaging 45,000 vaccines administer per week, down from the mid and upper 60,000s in March. Therefore, due to the reductions in vaccinations, the herd immunity projections have been pushed to late June and could slip even further into July.

The longer it takes us to contain and crush COVID, the more chances the virus has to create new mutations that could be more transmissible, more deadly and more elusive to previously developed antibodies.

We encourage everyone to receive their COVID vaccination sooner than later. The quicker we can reach herd immunity the sooner we can return to safely interacting with our friends and families, teachers return to classes without fear and reduce the strain on our first responders, hospitals and their staff. But most importantly, reaching herd immunity via vaccines will help spare families the hardships of loved ones becoming ill or even losing their lives.

Steve Miff, PhD.
President & CEO
Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation

Doing Our Part to Help Prevent Premature Births

In observation of Black Maternal Health Week, Parkland Community Health Plan (PCHP), in partnership with Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) want to highlight our efforts in Dallas to prevent preterm births, which is especially impactful on women in under-served communities.

To better serve pregnant women in our community, PCCI and PCHP developed and implemented an innovative maternal health program that uses a machine learning algorithm, healthcare data and social determinants of health to identify pregnant women who are at a higher risk of pre-term birth. The program engages these women through text messages designed to help them be proactive in seeking care during pregnancy.

Proactive care is critical because American women are more likely to die from pregnancy-related causes than women in other high-income nations and their own mothers a generation before. National severe maternal morbidity (SMM) rates have nearly doubled over the past decade, and the occurrence of SMM was 166% higher for African American women than white women from 2012 to 2015. More broadly, African American and Latino women, as well as socioeconomically disadvantaged populations, are disproportionately affected by poor health outcomes due to pregnancy related causes.

“One of the major risk factors for pregnant mothers and newborn babies is pre-term birth,” said John Wendling, chief executive officer of Parkland Community Health Plan. “Apart from adding to the risk during delivery itself, there are so many other long-term health and well-being risks for the mother and the child when a baby is born prematurely.”

The rate of preterm birth in Texas is highest for Black infants (14%) followed by American Indian/Alaska Natives (11%), and Hispanics (10.6%). In 2019, in Texas, 1 in 9 babies was born preterm. While there are many efforts to address poor maternal health outcomes in the US, most focus on preventing deaths during labor and delivery. Not enough attention is paid to the larger environmental context and non-traditional risk factors such as educational achievement, body mass index, socioeconomic status and mental and behavioral factors.

“As a local community health plan, we need to protect our at-risk pregnant women and the program we partnered with PCCI on is a very effective way to help,” said Wendling. “This program is a great example of a health plan utilizing sophisticated AI, social determinants of health and digital technology to improve patient engagement and experience. The long-term result is that we’ve positively affected the overall health and wellness of families in our community.”

The program has been running successfully for over three years in seven counties in North Texas and has risk stratified 40,000 unique pregnancies. We’ve seen preterm births reduced by 20% during this period. In a survey of the program participants, 73% of respondents agreed this program made them better prepared to take care of themselves and their babies.

“Not enough funding in healthcare innovation goes towards serving the vulnerable populations and that has exacerbated the digital divide,” Steve Miff PhD, president and chief executive officer of PCCI. “This pre-natal program with PCHP is a powerful application of advanced data science and technology at the point of care that focuses on the whole person to improve lives for the most vulnerable.”

PCCI’s Vikas Chowdhry, MBA (chief analytics and information officer) and Dr. Yolande Pengetnze (senior medical director) have helped oversee the success of the program in collaboration with key stakeholders at PCHP including Dr. Mark Clanton (chief medical officer) and Paula Turicchi (chief strategy officer). PCCI has filed for several patents related to this platform.

“In addition to PCCI’s technology created to use data analytics for maternal and pediatric health, this cutting-edge platform has been key to impacting innovation for COVID-19 related work, Parkland Health and Hospital System and Dallas County,” Miff said. “This unparalleled use of machine learning algorithm, healthcare data and social determinants of health to create practical, usable solutions will continue to impact of this investment in Dallas county and beyond.”

About the author

Vikas Chowdhry, MS, MBA, is PCCI’s Chief Analytics and Information Officer with 15+ years of healthcare experience. He works closely with data science and clinical teams at PCCI to develop machine learning driven technologies and products that can empower clinical and social services providers and individuals to create communities that are healthier and more productive.

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Governance: The Glue That Holds Connected Communities of Care Together

By Keith C. Kosel, PhD, MHSA, MBA

Aligning groups that have very different backgrounds and agendas, for the good of the community, is no easy matter. Whether at the city, state, or federal level, governmental or civic entities are tasked with trying to build consensus among various stakeholder groups to affect an outcome that works for the constituents they represent. It is no different for those tasked with leading a Connected Community of Care (CCC).

The Role of Governance
The premise behind the CCC is that by bringing together healthcare providers, community-based social service organizations (CBOs), faith-based organizations, and various civic entities, a community can establish a network of care providers focused on addressing residents’ social and/or clinical needs. While the premise is straightforward, establishing the governance group and governance structure to set up and manage a CCC is anything but straightforward. Before we look at how we might bring entities with different missions and agendas to the table, let’s understand what we mean by a governance group and a governance structure, and why these are essential to form a successful CCC.

The nucleus of a CCC is its governance group― those organizations that have come together to establish the CCC and to form the rules by which it will operate (the governance structure). As most CCCs form from scratch, the governance group is typically made up of one or two organizations we refer to as Anchor Organizations. These are typically large, well-established, and highly respected organizations within the community. They could include national social service organizations such as the United Way or Salvation Army, or they could be philanthropic funders, faith-based organizations or healthcare systems. What all these organizations have in common is a mission to improve the health and well-being of their community’s residents. As such they lie at the heart of the governance group (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Connected Communities of Care Including Governance Structure

In addition to the Anchor Organizations, the governance group typically consists of four to six additional Partner Organizations. These may be somewhat smaller CBOs (in scale and scope), but they all play a foundational community role in addressing resident’s social and/or clinical needs. Partner Organizations are well-known within the community and historically work closely with the Anchor Organizations. Partners could be regional food banks, housing assistance providers, crisis centers, mental health providers, local school districts, etc.― all defined by the fact they deliver essential social or clinical services within the community.

The role of the governance group is to provide structure and guidance for the CCC. By structure we mean things like: (1) how network participants will be identified and approved, and what will be expected of each; (2) what the CCC’s mission and charter will include; (3) how the CCC will be funded; and what type of data must be collected and shared, consistent with HIPAA regulations. While the governance structure deals with establishing the rules and policies that guide the day-to-day workings of the CCC, the governance guidance function focuses on issues like: (1) support for a Readiness Assessment (See previous blog) to determine if the community needs― and is even ready for ―a CCC; (2) how and at what rate the CCC should grow; (3) strategic partnerships; and (4) CCC sustainability. A governance group is essential to establishing and growing the CCC. Moreover, without a strong, representative and resilient governance group, most CCCs will eventually fail.

Act 1 -Forming the Governance Group

While we might think that forming the Governance Group would be a fairly easy task, given that many Anchors and Partners already know one other, in reality the process is far more complicated. While many of the Anchor and Partner Organizations work in parallel, they often have a narrow topical focus, such as providing food, housing, healthcare or after-school programs. These topical focus areas may conflict either with regard to the purpose of the work or the process by which the work takes place. As an outsider looking in, we might think these are minor, easily solved issues when in fact they are anything but. Layer on top of this funding mechanisms that often are not uniform or are based on an organization’s own performance to support its mission within the broader CCC, and simple differences compound quickly. As the number of Anchor and Partner Organizations increases, the complexity of achieving alignment among these entities also increases dramatically. This is the point where the presence of a powerful and commanding Anchor Organization(s) become critical in driving alignment.

Because there are usually only one or two Anchor Organizations, the likelihood of disagreement is minimized, compared to the next governance level down (i.e., Partners). Typically, the Anchor Organizations individually have been contemplating a Connected Community of Care for some time and all it takes is the right “spark” at the right moment to bring them together. Further, Anchor Organizations by their nature are well versed in coalition building and working across multiple sectors, which is a skill set that may be less well-developed in the Partners, especially in smaller or rural communities.

A key function of an Anchor Organization is to bring a handful of Partner Organizations into the governance group. Here the Anchor’s skill in selecting collegial partners or ones that can easily be won over to align with the CCC’s mission and goals is extremely important. Including a Partner that will be disruptive or non-cooperative is a fatal error, regardless of what resources that Partner might control. Even if it means working harder to secure the necessary resources, it is better to include only cooperative and committed partners than to access resources at the cost of major disruption.

Act 2 – Moving the Governance Group Forward
Establishing a highly cohesive and well-functioning governance group is only the first step in an ongoing process to grow a successful CCC. The governance group must continue to evolve along with the CCC network. As the network expands, there may be a need to increase representation within the governance group. While warranted, this process must be handled carefully to avoid the disruption just mentioned. At the same time, the governance group may need to remove some participants from the network for failing to follow the CCC’s charter or for sub-standard performance. Although these are difficult decisions, neglecting to make them can irreparably damage the entire CCC over time.

In wrestling with these decisions, the governance group must always be focused on sustainability – sustainability of the CCC and of the governance group itself. Sustainability of the CCC takes different forms from operational sustainability to financial sustainability, each of which are indispensable to a CCC’s long-term growth and viability. Operational sustainability focuses on the challenges of keeping the CCC network up-to-date with regard to technology, strategic partnerships, growth through additional participants, and ongoing social and health needs assessments (i.e., is the prevalence of obesity increasing silently in the community? Are more people accessing utility assistance in the face of declining employment as businesses relocate to more favorable locations?). It also includes provisions for turnover at both the CCC administrative level and at the level of the CBOs, which historically have high turnover levels due to numbers of volunteer staff, etc.

Achieving financial sustainability is the ultimate challenge facing CCC governance groups. Without sustained funding, whether through internal or external means, a CCC cannot survive long term as an effective functioning network. The real challenge is not only securing funding but doing so in a way that benefits all network participants in some fashion based on need and contribution. When network participants must seek funding on their own, inequities are prone to develop, as participants begin to follow their own interests rather than the collective interest of the CCC. Though a difficult challenge, especially in today’s pandemic environment of scarce funding, CCC governance groups must confront it head-on.

CCC governance is not an easy or straight road. Rather it is strewn with potholes, stop signs and detours- but one that must be followed none the less if a CCC is to achieve its goal of improving the health and well-being of the community and its residents. The time and thought that goes into establishing a cohesive and highly effective governance group and structure will pay dividends to the CCC and those it serves many times over as the CCC grows and matures to become a key fixture within the community.

About the author
Dr. Keith Kosel is a Vice President at Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) and is author of “Building Connected Communities of Care: The Playbook for Streamlining Effective Coordination Between Medical and Community-Based Organizations,” a guide that brings together communities to support our most vulnerable. At PCCI, Keith is leveraging his passion for – and extensive experience in – patient safety, quality, and population health by focusing on understanding social determinants of health and the impact of community-based interventions in improving the health of vulnerable and under-served populations.

PCCI’s Vulnerability Index Records 66 Percent Reduction in COVID-19 Risk for Dallas County

DALLAS – Dallas County saw a massive 66 percent reduction in risk values recorded by PCCI’s COVID-19 Vulnerability Index in February, with some of the most vulnerable ZIP codes showing significant reductions.

One of the hardest hit ZIP Codes, 75211, which includes the areas around Cockrell Hill and Oak Hill, saw its vulnerability risk value drop by 151.9 points, going from 196.9 vulnerability rating in January to 44.9 in February. The 75211 ZIP code remains the second most at risk area in Dallas County, however its overall improvement is a positive sign for the hard-hit area.

“The dramatic drop in the county’s vulnerability is positive and offers a hopeful path going forward,” Thomas Roderick, PhD, Senior Director of Data and Applied Sciences at PCCI. “We are remaining cautious as we saw vulnerability rates come down

last summer only to see increase significantly later. The key to continued reduction of vulnerability is ongoing vigilance, including continued adhering to local health official guidance, social distancing, face covering, and registering for vaccinations as soon as you’re able.”

Launched in June of 2020, PCCI’s Vulnerability Index identifies communities at risk by examining comorbidity rates, including chronic illnesses such as hypertension, cancer, diabetes and heart disease; areas with a high density of populations over the age of 65; and increased social deprivation such as lack of access to food, medicine, employment and transportation. These factors are combined with dynamic mobility rates and confirmed COVID-19 cases where a vulnerability index value is scaled relative to July 2020’s COVID-19 peak value. The PCCI COVID-19 Vulnerability Index

can be found on its COVID-19 Hub for Dallas County at: https://covid-analytics-pccinnovation.hub.arcgis.com/.

In addition to the drop in 75211, the ZIP code 75204, in east downtown Dallas, saw a 104.4 drop in its vulnerability ratings. ZIP code 75224, in southern Dallas, saw a drop of 64.9 in its vulnerability ratings, but now is ranked as the most vulnerable area in Dallas County with a vulnerability value of 45.87. Also, the ZIP code 75227, in east Dallas County intersected by State Highway 12, is the third most vulnerable area in Dallas with a 42.45 value, though it dropped 70.5 in its vulnerability ratings since January.

“Holidays and events are potential super-spreader events,” said Dr. Roderick. “We are in a time of year where these tend to

be limited, which impacts ongoing COVID-19 cases. However, Spring Break and occasional holidays on the calendar represent potential trouble times. PCCI will continue monitoring for things that can push Dallas County into higher levels of vulnerability.”

PCCI recently forecast that Dallas County may reach COVID-19 herd immunity by mid-June. This, Dr. Roderick points out, is only possible though vaccinations.

“We each need to be patient as well as register and receive our COVID-19 vaccination,” said Dr. Roderick. “The only way we will reach herd immunity is by maintaining our vigilance and getting vaccinated. Reaching herd immunity is a community effort and should be a priority for each of us.”

PCCI recently launched the MyPCI App, another program to help inform the residents of Dallas County to their individual risks. The MyPCI App, free to register and use, is a secure, cloud-based tool that doesn’t require personal health information and doesn’t track an individual’s mobile phone data. Instead, it is a sophisticated machine learning algorithm, geomapping and hot-spotting technology that uses daily updated data from the Dallas County Health and Human Services (DCHHS) on confirmed positive COVID-19 cases and the population density in a given neighborhood. Based on density and distances to those nearby who are infected, the MyPCI App generates a dynamic personal risk score.

To use the MyPCI App, go to, https://pcci1.wpengine.com/mypci/, click on the link and register (Using code: GP-7xI6QT). Registration includes a request for individual location information that will be used only for generating a risk assessment, never shared. Once registered, simply login daily and a COVID-19 personal risk level score will be provided along with information to help individuals make informed decisions about how to manage their risk.

Data Sources:
To build Vulnerability Index, PCCI relied on data from Parkland Health & Hospital System, Dallas County Health and Human Services Department, the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council, U.S. Census, and SafeGraph.

About Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation
Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) is an independent, not-for-profit, healthcare intelligence organization affiliated with Parkland Health & Hospital System. PCCI leverages clinical expertise, data science and social determinants of health to address the needs of vulnerable populations. We believe that data, done right, has the power to galvanize communities, inform leaders, and empower people.

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January COVID-19 Vulnerability Index Update: Risks Intensifying to Highest Levels of The Pandemic

DALLAS – The post-Christmas and New Year’s holidays contributed to soaring risk values recorded by PCCI’s COVID-19 Vulnerability Index, beyond any previously recorded levels. However, with the end of the holiday season, PCCI experts are optimistic that January’s extreme spike is the infection’s peak.

“With the major 2020 holidays concluded, over the next several months we can see the return to daily life on the horizon,” said Thomas Roderick, PhD, Senior Director of Data and Applied Sciences at PCCI. “With ongoing vigilance, including continued adhering to local health official guidance, social distancing, face covering, and registering for vaccinations as soon as you’re able, we can anticipate that the recent high case counts are behind us.”

Launched in June, PCCI’s Vulnerability Index determines communities at risk by examining comorbidity rates, including chronic illnesses such as hypertension, cancer, diabetes and heart disease; areas with a high density of populations over the age of 65; and increased social deprivation such as lack of access to food, medicine, employment and transportation. These factors are combined with dynamic mobility rates and confirmed COVID-19 cases where a vulnerability index value is scaled relative to July 2020’s COVID-19 peak value. The PCCI COVID-19 Vulnerability Index can be found on its COVID-19 Hub for Dallas County at: https://covid-analytics-pccinnovation.hub.arcgis.com/.

While there are signs that the recent peak may be over, January’s Vulnerability Index numbers showed that Dallas County was severely battered by COVID-19, especially in the ZIP codes struggling with socioeconomic issues. For example, the ZIP code 75211, around Cockrell Hill, continues to top the most at-risk area in Dallas, as it has since the Vulnerability Index began recording data in June. However, in January, 75211, the area exceeded the record value that it set in December, increasing its vulnerability value by 38.9 points. The ZIP code 75243 holds the position as the second most vulnerable area in Dallas County with a vulnerability value of 129.99.

“The ZIP codes, 75211 and 75243 are two areas of Dallas County facing the highest socioeconomic challenges; the fact that they are the most identified as highly vulnerable to COVID-19 shows how the PCCI Vulnerability Index is helping shine the

light on where the help is needed most,” said Dr. Roderick. “The entire healthcare community in Dallas County is striving to equitably mitigate the spread of COVID-19, and the Vulnerability Index offers factual data to support that effort.”

Other ZIP codes with major leaps in their vulnerability values include 75217, 75204 and 75040. The top-most vulnerable ZIP codes averaged a vulnerability value of 100.53 in January compared to the top-most in December that averaged a vulnerability value of 79.77, underscoring the rise in cases from mid-December 2020 to mid-January 2020.

PCCI recently launched the MyPCI App, another program to help inform the residents of Dallas County to their individual risks. The MyPCI App, free to register and use, is a secure, cloud-based tool that doesn’t require personal health information and doesn’t track an individual’s mobile phone data. Instead, it is a sophisticated machine learning algorithm, geomapping and hot-spotting technology that uses daily updated data from the Dallas County Health and Human Services (DCHHS) on confirmed positive COVID-19 cases and the population density in a given neighborhood. Based on density and distances to those nearby who are infected, the MyPCI App generates a dynamic personal risk score.

To use the MyPCI App, go to, https://pcci1.wpengine.com/mypci/, click on the link and register (Using code: GP-7xI6QT). Registration includes a request for individual location information that will be used only for generating a risk assessment, never shared. Once registered, simply login daily and a COVID-19 personal risk level score will be provided along with information to help individuals make informed decisions about how to manage their risk.

“We have seen that proximity is one of the most important factors in pandemic management and personal protection,” said Dr. Roderick. “While we wait for vaccine programs to take hold, we can use the MyPCI App to control our own risk of exposure and help bend the curve.”

 Data Sources:

To build Vulnerability Index, PCCI relied on data from Parkland Health & Hospital System, Dallas County Health and Human Services Department, the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council, U.S. Census, and SafeGraph.

About Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation

Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) is an independent, not-for-profit, healthcare intelligence organization affiliated with Parkland Health & Hospital System. PCCI leverages clinical expertise, data science and social determinants of health to address the needs of vulnerable populations. We believe that data, done right, has the power to galvanize communities, inform leaders, and empower people.

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Get Your COVID19 Person Risk Score Now

To register and login to the MyPCI App to quickly understand your personal risk of COVID-19 exposure in Dallas County, please click on the image below below or go to: https://mypci.pccinnovation.org/my-proximity to register, Using code: GP-7xI6QT. The first assessment takes 24 hours.

 

 

 

PCCI IMPACT: Serving The Whole Community

PCCI strives to achieve the broadest community-wide impact through: (1) support of initiatives closing the gap between
providing clinical care and addressing non-medical needs to positively impact whole-person health; (2) support of
Parkland and its CHNA strategic priorities; and (3) support of PCHP as it strives to quantify community impact.

Below is a sample of PCCI’s work that is having an important impact on our community. For a much more detailed report, contact us for a copy of PCCI’s Annual Impact Report, where PCCI’s actions are shared in much greater detail.

To get the full Annual Impact Report, please click HERE, select “other” and in the message box, add “Annual Impact Report” to receive your electronic copy.

PCCI Impact: Optimizing How Care Is Delivered in 2020

In addition to PCCI’s critical collaboration with Parkland to address the care capacity and front line care-management
challenges resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, we have continued efforts this year to develop tools that enable care delivery teams to intervene earlier, respond differently, or prioritize engagement strategies. For example, our The Parkland Trauma Index of Mortality and PARADE (Patients at Risk for Adverse Drug Events) projects provide innovative and practical tools for improving clinical outcomes.

Below is a sample of PCCI’s work that is having an important impact on how providers deliver care. For a much more detailed report, contact us for a copy of PCCI’s Annual Impact Report, where PCCI’s actions are shared in much greater detail.

To get the full Annual Impact Report, please click HERE, select “other” and in the message box, add “Annual Impact Report” to receive your electronic copy.

PCCI IMPACT: MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN THE LIVES OF PATIENTS IN 2020

In 2020, PCCI’s focus on supporting our under-served populations leveraging data and clinical expertise continued full speed ahead. Our success and experience with both our pediatric asthma and preterm birth prevention programs have formed the foundation for new initiatives with community partners. Below is a sample of PCCI’s work that is having an important impact on making a difference in the lives of patients. For a much more detailed report, contact us for a copy of PCCI’s Annual Impact Report, where PCCI’s actions are shared in much greater detail.

To get the full Annual Impact Report, please click HERE, select “other” and in the message box, add “Annual Impact Report” to receive your electronic copy.

PCCI Impact: Taking the Fight To COVID-19 in 2020

COVID-19’s outbreak in the Dallas-area was a challenge PCCI faced head-on, making an impact on the community with its approach to providing innovative tools to help the public and healthcare leaders better understand the pandemic and mitigate its harm. Below is a short excerpt of PCCI’s COVID-19 efforts, for a much more detailed report, contact us for a copy of PCCI’s Annual Impact Report, where PCCI’s actions are shared in much greater detail.

To get the full Annual Impact Report, please click HERE, select “other” and in the message box, add “Annual Impact Report” to receive your electronic copy.