Vulnerability Index Archives – PCCI

14 April 2021

PCCI’s Vulnerability Index Shows Lowest COVID-19 Infection Risk Level for Dallas County




DALLAS – Towards the end of March, Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation’s COVID-19 Vulnerability Index has recorded the lowest infection risk since the Vulnerability Index launched in June of last year.

“After the holidays, we had vulnerability index ratings at nearly 200, which meant the COVID-19 virus was running rampant through our community,” said George “Holt” Oliver, MD, Vice President of Clinical Informatics at PCCI. “It is a great relief to see that the highest vulnerability index rating now is only 16.91. This is a triumph for our county’s public health leaders, providers and residents who have made the sacrifices and efforts needed to bend the curve.”

One of the hardest hit ZIP Codes during the past year, 75211, which includes the areas around Cockrell Hill and Oak Cliff, saw its vulnerability risk hit the high of 196.9 in January. This was the highest level any ZIP code in Dallas County reached. By mid-March, its vulnerability rating was 8.74, a dramatic improvement for an area facing some of the most sever socioeconomic issues.

“This is very good news for the residents of the 75211 ZIP code; however, we advise caution going forward,” said Dr. Oliver. “I believe that our new normal will be continued vigilance. To keep COVID-19 from resurging, everyone who can be vaccinated should seek it, and adhere to local health official guidance that includes direction on social distancing and face covering.”

Launched in June 2020, PCCI’s Vulnerability Index identifies communities at risk by examining comorbidity rates, including chronic illnesses such as hypertension, cancer, diabetes and heart disease; areas with a high density of populations over the age of 65; and increased social deprivation such as lack of access to food, medicine, employment and transportation. These factors are combined with dynamic mobility rates and confirmed COVID-19 cases where a vulnerability index value is scaled relative to July 2020’s COVID-19 peak value. The PCCI COVID-19 Vulnerability Index can be found on its COVID-19 Hub for Dallas County at: https://covid-analytics-pccinnovation.hub.arcgis.com/.

Currently, the 75150 ZIP code, at the intersection of Interstate Highway 30 and 635 has the highest COVID-19 risk at 16.91, down from a high of 107.30 in January. The ZIP code 75204, in east downtown Dallas, has the second highest vulnerability level at 15.81, down from a high of 126.5 in January.

PCCI’s forecast of Dallas County reaching COVID-19 herd immunity is still on-track but reaching that threshold is highly dependent residents receiving their vaccinations.

“With vaccinations available to all adults, we need to get in line and get immunized,” said Dr. Steve Miff, PCCI President and CEO. “We don’t want another year to go by where grandparents can’t hug their grandchildren. We have seen how safe and effective the current vaccines are, so it is the responsible thing to do for our friends, families and co-workers to get immunized.”

While always concerning when adverse reactions emerge, the action by the FDA to pause the J&J vaccine is out of “abundance of caution” and it’s a strong signal of how responsive they are to any potential safety concerns. Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) with J&J vaccine has been reported in 6 young women (ages 18-48) among 6.8 million doses in the US. To date, Dallas County has administered 61% Pfizer, 35% Moderna, and 4% J&J. The syndrome has been dubbed vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia.(VITT), based on a similar syndrome after the commonly-used medication heparin abbreviated HITT. The reported rates are much lower than IV Heparin which is used frequently in the hospital. While the risk benefit ratio of continuing to use J& J vaccine in the US COVID-19 vaccination plan may still make sense given the observed case fatality rate of 1.8% of COVID-19, prudence to understand the situation given the FDA emergency use authorization for use is warranted..

The FDA pause for the J&J vaccine will not significantly impact the PCCI initial estimate for Dallas County’s path to herd immunity by June. We were progressing towards herd immunity at a rate of approximately 3% per week, which was ahead of initial predictions. While the allocations for J&J were scheduled to increase and the latest developments will pause those vaccinations likely for days, up to several weeks, we forecast that Dallas county will continue to make progress at 2-2.5% per  week, which maintains the pace for mid-June.

A year in retrospective
With the COVID-19 pandemic ongoing for over a year, PCCI identified the zip codes with the highest average vulnerability from July 2020 through March 2021. These represent areas which have faced the highest risk during the COVID-19 pandemic to date.

Data Sources:
To build Vulnerability Index, PCCI relied on data from Parkland Health & Hospital System, Dallas County Health and Human Services Department, the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council, U.S. Census, and SafeGraph.

About Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation
Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) is an independent, not-for-profit, healthcare intelligence organization affiliated with Parkland Health & Hospital System. PCCI leverages clinical expertise, data science and social determinants of health to address the needs of vulnerable populations. We believe that data, done right, has the power to galvanize communities, inform leaders, and empower people.

###

Authors

Steve Miff, PhD., President & CEO of PCCI, George “Holt” Oliver, MD, Vice President of Clinical Informatics at PCCI and  Thomas Roderick, PhD, Senior Director of Data and Applied Sciences at PCCI.

5 March 2021

PCCI’s Vulnerability Index Records 66 Percent Reduction in COVID-19 Risk for Dallas County




DALLAS – Dallas County saw a massive 66 percent reduction in risk values recorded by PCCI’s COVID-19 Vulnerability Index in February, with some of the most vulnerable ZIP codes showing significant reductions.

One of the hardest hit ZIP Codes, 75211, which includes the areas around Cockrell Hill and Oak Hill, saw its vulnerability risk value drop by 151.9 points, going from 196.9 vulnerability rating in January to 44.9 in February. The 75211 ZIP code remains the second most at risk area in Dallas County, however its overall improvement is a positive sign for the hard-hit area.

“The dramatic drop in the county’s vulnerability is positive and offers a hopeful path going forward,” Thomas Roderick, PhD, Senior Director of Data and Applied Sciences at PCCI. “We are remaining cautious as we saw vulnerability rates come down

last summer only to see increase significantly later. The key to continued reduction of vulnerability is ongoing vigilance, including continued adhering to local health official guidance, social distancing, face covering, and registering for vaccinations as soon as you’re able.”

Launched in June of 2020, PCCI’s Vulnerability Index identifies communities at risk by examining comorbidity rates, including chronic illnesses such as hypertension, cancer, diabetes and heart disease; areas with a high density of populations over the age of 65; and increased social deprivation such as lack of access to food, medicine, employment and transportation. These factors are combined with dynamic mobility rates and confirmed COVID-19 cases where a vulnerability index value is scaled relative to July 2020’s COVID-19 peak value. The PCCI COVID-19 Vulnerability Index

can be found on its COVID-19 Hub for Dallas County at: https://covid-analytics-pccinnovation.hub.arcgis.com/.

In addition to the drop in 75211, the ZIP code 75204, in east downtown Dallas, saw a 104.4 drop in its vulnerability ratings. ZIP code 75224, in southern Dallas, saw a drop of 64.9 in its vulnerability ratings, but now is ranked as the most vulnerable area in Dallas County with a vulnerability value of 45.87. Also, the ZIP code 75227, in east Dallas County intersected by State Highway 12, is the third most vulnerable area in Dallas with a 42.45 value, though it dropped 70.5 in its vulnerability ratings since January.

“Holidays and events are potential super-spreader events,” said Dr. Roderick. “We are in a time of year where these tend to

be limited, which impacts ongoing COVID-19 cases. However, Spring Break and occasional holidays on the calendar represent potential trouble times. PCCI will continue monitoring for things that can push Dallas County into higher levels of vulnerability.”

PCCI recently forecast that Dallas County may reach COVID-19 herd immunity by mid-June. This, Dr. Roderick points out, is only possible though vaccinations.

“We each need to be patient as well as register and receive our COVID-19 vaccination,” said Dr. Roderick. “The only way we will reach herd immunity is by maintaining our vigilance and getting vaccinated. Reaching herd immunity is a community effort and should be a priority for each of us.”

PCCI recently launched the MyPCI App, another program to help inform the residents of Dallas County to their individual risks. The MyPCI App, free to register and use, is a secure, cloud-based tool that doesn’t require personal health information and doesn’t track an individual’s mobile phone data. Instead, it is a sophisticated machine learning algorithm, geomapping and hot-spotting technology that uses daily updated data from the Dallas County Health and Human Services (DCHHS) on confirmed positive COVID-19 cases and the population density in a given neighborhood. Based on density and distances to those nearby who are infected, the MyPCI App generates a dynamic personal risk score.

To use the MyPCI App, go to, https://pccinnovation.org/mypci/, click on the link and register (Using code: GP-7xI6QT). Registration includes a request for individual location information that will be used only for generating a risk assessment, never shared. Once registered, simply login daily and a COVID-19 personal risk level score will be provided along with information to help individuals make informed decisions about how to manage their risk.

Data Sources:
To build Vulnerability Index, PCCI relied on data from Parkland Health & Hospital System, Dallas County Health and Human Services Department, the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council, U.S. Census, and SafeGraph.

About Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation
Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) is an independent, not-for-profit, healthcare intelligence organization affiliated with Parkland Health & Hospital System. PCCI leverages clinical expertise, data science and social determinants of health to address the needs of vulnerable populations. We believe that data, done right, has the power to galvanize communities, inform leaders, and empower people.

###

31 December 2020

In the news: COVID-19 Patients Make Up One Quarter of All Hospitalizations




In this story from DCEO, state data says there are only 18 ICU beds available in Dallas County and just six in Tarrant County. This story highlights PCCI’s COVID-19 Vulnerability Index and how it has shown exponential growth in risk using its Vulnerability Index tool. For the full story, click on the image below:

Register your team to receive a complimentary set of “Building Connected Communities of Care” and kick off your Executive Book Club with a consultation from one of our experts.

Sign up to receive email updates on PCCI announcements, advancements in the industry, and more!
Loading