Dallas County Archives – PCCI

14 April 2021

PCCI’s Vulnerability Index Shows Lowest COVID-19 Infection Risk Level for Dallas County




DALLAS – Towards the end of March, Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation’s COVID-19 Vulnerability Index has recorded the lowest infection risk since the Vulnerability Index launched in June of last year.

“After the holidays, we had vulnerability index ratings at nearly 200, which meant the COVID-19 virus was running rampant through our community,” said George “Holt” Oliver, MD, Vice President of Clinical Informatics at PCCI. “It is a great relief to see that the highest vulnerability index rating now is only 16.91. This is a triumph for our county’s public health leaders, providers and residents who have made the sacrifices and efforts needed to bend the curve.”

One of the hardest hit ZIP Codes during the past year, 75211, which includes the areas around Cockrell Hill and Oak Cliff, saw its vulnerability risk hit the high of 196.9 in January. This was the highest level any ZIP code in Dallas County reached. By mid-March, its vulnerability rating was 8.74, a dramatic improvement for an area facing some of the most sever socioeconomic issues.

“This is very good news for the residents of the 75211 ZIP code; however, we advise caution going forward,” said Dr. Oliver. “I believe that our new normal will be continued vigilance. To keep COVID-19 from resurging, everyone who can be vaccinated should seek it, and adhere to local health official guidance that includes direction on social distancing and face covering.”

Launched in June 2020, PCCI’s Vulnerability Index identifies communities at risk by examining comorbidity rates, including chronic illnesses such as hypertension, cancer, diabetes and heart disease; areas with a high density of populations over the age of 65; and increased social deprivation such as lack of access to food, medicine, employment and transportation. These factors are combined with dynamic mobility rates and confirmed COVID-19 cases where a vulnerability index value is scaled relative to July 2020’s COVID-19 peak value. The PCCI COVID-19 Vulnerability Index can be found on its COVID-19 Hub for Dallas County at: https://covid-analytics-pccinnovation.hub.arcgis.com/.

Currently, the 75150 ZIP code, at the intersection of Interstate Highway 30 and 635 has the highest COVID-19 risk at 16.91, down from a high of 107.30 in January. The ZIP code 75204, in east downtown Dallas, has the second highest vulnerability level at 15.81, down from a high of 126.5 in January.

PCCI’s forecast of Dallas County reaching COVID-19 herd immunity is still on-track but reaching that threshold is highly dependent residents receiving their vaccinations.

“With vaccinations available to all adults, we need to get in line and get immunized,” said Dr. Steve Miff, PCCI President and CEO. “We don’t want another year to go by where grandparents can’t hug their grandchildren. We have seen how safe and effective the current vaccines are, so it is the responsible thing to do for our friends, families and co-workers to get immunized.”

While always concerning when adverse reactions emerge, the action by the FDA to pause the J&J vaccine is out of “abundance of caution” and it’s a strong signal of how responsive they are to any potential safety concerns. Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) with J&J vaccine has been reported in 6 young women (ages 18-48) among 6.8 million doses in the US. To date, Dallas County has administered 61% Pfizer, 35% Moderna, and 4% J&J. The syndrome has been dubbed vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia.(VITT), based on a similar syndrome after the commonly-used medication heparin abbreviated HITT. The reported rates are much lower than IV Heparin which is used frequently in the hospital. While the risk benefit ratio of continuing to use J& J vaccine in the US COVID-19 vaccination plan may still make sense given the observed case fatality rate of 1.8% of COVID-19, prudence to understand the situation given the FDA emergency use authorization for use is warranted..

The FDA pause for the J&J vaccine will not significantly impact the PCCI initial estimate for Dallas County’s path to herd immunity by June. We were progressing towards herd immunity at a rate of approximately 3% per week, which was ahead of initial predictions. While the allocations for J&J were scheduled to increase and the latest developments will pause those vaccinations likely for days, up to several weeks, we forecast that Dallas county will continue to make progress at 2-2.5% per  week, which maintains the pace for mid-June.

A year in retrospective
With the COVID-19 pandemic ongoing for over a year, PCCI identified the zip codes with the highest average vulnerability from July 2020 through March 2021. These represent areas which have faced the highest risk during the COVID-19 pandemic to date.

Data Sources:
To build Vulnerability Index, PCCI relied on data from Parkland Health & Hospital System, Dallas County Health and Human Services Department, the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council, U.S. Census, and SafeGraph.

About Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation
Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) is an independent, not-for-profit, healthcare intelligence organization affiliated with Parkland Health & Hospital System. PCCI leverages clinical expertise, data science and social determinants of health to address the needs of vulnerable populations. We believe that data, done right, has the power to galvanize communities, inform leaders, and empower people.

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Authors

Steve Miff, PhD., President & CEO of PCCI, George “Holt” Oliver, MD, Vice President of Clinical Informatics at PCCI and  Thomas Roderick, PhD, Senior Director of Data and Applied Sciences at PCCI.

23 February 2021

PCCI Forecasts that Dallas County to reach COVID-19 Herd Immunity by mid-June




Dallas, Texas – Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI), which improves healthcare for vulnerable populations using advanced data science and clinical experts, estimates Dallas County will reach a critical tipping point of COVID-19 “herd immunity” in late-June due to total case recoveries and vaccinations.

PCCI forecasts that Dallas County is on track to have 80 percent of the county residents at levels of COVID-19 “herd immunity” by early summer. This forecast is based on models estimating individuals who either have recovered from COVID-19 or who have received vaccinations.

“Our forecast is determined by the data, models and trends we have been monitoring and analyzing since the beginning of the pandemic and informed by the latest national and international research. We are optimistic that by early summer, much of Dallas County will reach herd immunity,” said Steve Miff, PhD, President and CEO of PCCI. “We will get to herd immunity either through continued infection, which is a slow route that will continue to harm the community and economy, or vaccinations. This underscores the importance of Dallas County residents registering for and receiving the COVID-19 vaccinations as quickly as possible and continuing to stay vigilant and safe from being infected. We’re also racing to stay ahead of the development and spread of existing or future new COVID-19 strains. We are in this together and will only get there though our collective and combined efforts.”

PCCI’s analysis, as of Feb. 22, indicates that the county has already reached 44 percent of the 1.9 million adult residents of Dallas County as either recovered from COVID-19 or in the process of receiving their full COVID-19 vaccine. That includes 922,460 COVID-19 confirmed and presumed infected and recovered, and 270,642 residents who have received their first (154,766) and second (115,875) vaccine shot.

“Reaching the tipping point for herd immunity is achievable with continued community effort,” said Thomas Roderick, PhD, Senior Director of Data and Applied Sciences at PCCI. “But parts of the county may not share the early benefits in our estimated forecast if they don’t keep pace with vaccines. Vaccines are also the best line of defense against COVID-19 variants, so it is critical that vaccines are made available to as many people as possible and county residents make it a priority to get vaccinated.”

PCCI’s forecast for herd immunity is based on widely accepted statistical analysis of spread and management of diseases within com

munities. Further, PCCI’s 80 percent range for reaching herd immunity is in line with national estimates, such as that of Anthony S. Fauci, MD, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who recently gave a range of 70 to 90 percent and the World Health Organization that gave a 60 to 70 percent range of infections and vaccines to reach herd immunity*.

PCCI’s forecast and estimates have been developed in coordination with and reviewed by community health leaders in Dallas County including experts at UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas County Health and Human Services and Parkland Health & Hospital System.

“Our predictions for Dallas County to reach its herd immunity tipping point include algorithms to predict total infections and forecasts of vaccination rates. We encourage the community to participate in virological studies such as the one conducted by our colleagues at UT Southwestern (https://utswmed.org/covidstudy/) so we can better understand the community infections and impact. We also need to register and vaccinate the most vulnerable as well as the rest of the population as soon as they are eligible,” said George ‘Holt’ Oliver, MD, PhD, Vice President of Clinical Informatics at PCCI.

PCCI will update its forecast monthly to understand how well the county is progressing toward its 80 percent vaccinated and infected and recovered rate. The updates will incorporate the latest data, intelligence and information from new studies, research and developments regarding the COVID-19 pandemic and impact of emerging strains.

PCCI has made available an important tool to help Dallas County residents stay vigilant and understand their personal risk, the MyPCI App, a free wed-base app that will help individuals make informed choices by providing an on-demand, location-based personal risk assessment of possible COVID-19 exposure. MyPCI is a sophisticated machine learning algorithm, geomapping and hot-spotting technology that uses daily updated data from Dallas County Health and Human Services (DCHHS) on confirmed positive COVID-19 cases and the population density in a given neighborhood. Based on density and distances to those nearby who are infected, the MyPCI App generates a dynamic personal risk score.

To use the MyPCI App, go to, https://pccinnovation.org/mypci/, click on the link and register (Using code: GP-7xI6QT). Registration includes a request for individual location information that will be used only for generating a risk assessment, never shared. Once registered, simply login daily and a COVID-19 personal risk level score will be provided along with information to help individuals make informed decisions about how to manage their risk.

About Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation
Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) is an independent, not-for-profit, healthcare intelligence organization affiliated with Parkland Health & Hospital System. PCCI leverages clinical expertise, data science and social determinants of health to address the needs of vulnerable populations.

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*New York Times, Dec. 24, 2020: “How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough?”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.html

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