Parkland program helps pediatric patients with asthma management

Asthma a top cause of sickness in Dallas County children

DALLAS – It’s difficult to keep Sir Moreland of Mesquite indoors. Like most 12-year-old boys, Sir loves spending time outside with his brother and friends. Playing baseball and basketball is his favorite thing to do but right now his focus is flag football.

“This is the first time I’ll be playing for a team,” said Sir. “I’m scared, nervous and excited.”

Playing sports was not always easy for Sir. At age 5 after running outside with friends, Sir began struggling to breathe and was rushed to the Emergency Department at Children’s Hospital. His mother Sheniqua Turner, 36, had no idea the symptoms her son was experiencing at that moment were due to an asthma attack. He was hospitalized for three days.

“I knew of some kids who had asthma, but I’d never seen an asthma attack firsthand,” said Turner. “I didn’t know what was going on. I was really nervous and didn’t know what to do.”

According to physicians at Parkland Health & Hospital System, asthma symptoms vary from person to person. The most common include shortness of breath, chest tightness or pain, coughing or wheezing and episodes that worsen with respiratory viruses like the flu. These symptoms tend to appear when exposed to triggers like pet dander, dust, pollen, air pollutant, mold or even cold air.  For some, the symptoms might not necessarily be conspicuous, such as a mild, prolonged cough.

After her son’s discharge from the hospital Turner immediately followed up with Sir’s pediatrician at Parkland who educated the worried mother about asthma and potential treatments. She left with a personalized action plan to help manage Sir’s asthma.

“I had to learn all his triggers,” said Turner. “I think that’s the reason he hasn’t had an asthma attack since. He’s doing really good now.”

About 6 million children in the U.S. ages 0-17 years have asthma, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The 2019 Dallas County Community Health Needs Assessment (CHNA) identified asthma as a leading chronic disease among children, particularly in children residing in ZIP codes located in the southeast of Dallas County. Parkland providers have launched a new program to educate parents and other caregivers and stress the importance of having a personalized action plan to help manage the disease.

“It’s a significant problem. Children would visit their nurse at school because they didn’t have their asthma under control,” said Cesar Termulo, MD, Associate Medical Director at Parkland’s Hatcher Station Community Oriented Primary Care health center. “At times their case would be too severe, and they would need to be taken to the hospital. The majority of these children were not being seen by a primary care doctor to help manage their asthma.”

To help families dealing with the condition, six ZIP codes in Dallas County (75210, 75211, 75215, 75216, 75217 and 75241) were identified to target with interventions to improve children’s asthma control through Breath for Life & Learn for Life, a collaborative effort between Parkland and multiple organizations to address asthma in the community.

Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) instituted an educational text messaging program that focuses on upstream interventions to engage and improve patient care in identified ZIP codes such as patient symptom and medication adherence monitoring. The text messaging program allows for two-way communication. For example, the parent may receive a text message asking, “How is your child’s asthma today?” If the response is the child is experiencing some difficulties, PCCI will notify their provider who may recommend the parent to seek care. The data-driven model assists with care prioritization by referring patients to their primary care physician for asthma management when indicated. If they do not have a primary care physician, they are referred to Parkland to establish a medical home for primary care to include asthma medical management.

PCCI’s asthma risk-prediction model remotely monitors background electronic data of high-risk asthma children.  These children may be referred to their primary care physician.  If the physician requires additional information, the child can be referred to Dallas County Health & Human Services (DCHHS) for a home visit.  DCHHS reaches out virtually to assess their current asthma status and identify environmental factors at home.   Based on their findings, DCHHS community health workers recommend changes to the home environment to reduce exposure to asthma triggers.

“The pediatric asthma model retains a good prediction ability and provides additional clinical insights not previously available using claims data only,” said Aida Somun, PMP, MBA, Chief Operations Officer at PCCI. “With the addition of electronic health records data, our asthma model can be used for all children irrespective of insurance status, thus expanding the benefits of our program to more vulnerable children with asthma.”

Positive Breathing, an organization with a mobile bus that has been outfitted to perform advanced asthma spirometry screening, will also provide outreach into the hard-to-reach sectors of the community and refer patients who are symptomatic.

There are plans for Dallas Independent School District to also refer students with asthma who do not currently have a primary care physician.

“The goal is to reduce avoidable asthma-related visits to the ED and hospitalizations through community outreach,” Dr. Termulo said. “We can make a huge difference.”

Sir says he feels “really good” now that he has his asthma under control. “I don’t have to worry much about it anymore. I can run as fast as I can.”

“Asthma is a real monster, but it’s possible to overcome it. It’s all about educating yourself,” said Turner.

If you live in one of the targeted zip codes and would like to enroll in the asthma text messaging program, please text @asthma to 844-721-0839. For Spanish, please text @asma1 to 844-721-0839.To find out about services at Parkland, go to www.parklandhospital.com. For more information about the 2019 Community Health Needs Assessment go to www.parklandhospital.com/chna .

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PCCI Publishing: New England Journal of Medicine – Examining PCCI’s approach to determining COVID-19 herd immunity in Dallas County

The New England Journal of Medicine/Catalyst published an article authored by members of PCCI, the Institute for Healthcare Improvement and the  Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center that examines PCCI’s approach to determining COVID-19 herd immunity in Dallas County.

The article, “Rethinking Herd Immunity: Managing the Covid-19 Pandemic in a Dynamic Biological and Behavioral Environment,” was published under its “Innovations Care Delivery” section. The authors of the article share how a detailed understanding of local pandemic conditions is necessary to create focused, tailored responses. While achieving high levels of vaccination is important, exclusive focus on national vaccine targets de-emphasizes the complexities of Covid-19 population immunity. Herd immunity is dynamic and depends on the transmissibility of each new Covid-19 strain, the effectiveness of previous immunity due to previous infection and vaccination against these strains, and human behavior in local communities.

The authors developed a potential framework for enumerating and estimating community-wide immunity to Covid-19 with use of data reportable to local county public health authorities. Using data from Dallas County, Texas, they describe the interplay of vaccines and infection in terms of Covid-19 population immunity, the effect of variants on the ever-changing threshold for herd immunity, and how better access, algorithms, and use of real-time local immunity data could lead to more effective local population protection.

To view the article click here:

https://catalyst.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/CAT.21.0288

Or to view it as a PDF, click here.

https://catalyst.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/CAT.21.0288

 

PCCI Published: Building a Vulnerability Index of Biological and Socioeconomic Risk Factors to Combat COVID-19 Spread

In mid-2021, PCCI experts, along with co-authors from William & Mary published an article in the DESRIST 2021: The Next Wave of Sociotechnical Design pp 22-33, outlining how PCCI developed a COVID-19 vulnerability index that was used by Dallas-area health officials to identify populations in Dallas most at-risk.

DESRIST 2021: The Next Wave of Sociotechnical Design pp 22-33

ABSTRACT:
In early 2020, many community leaders faced high uncertainty regarding their local communities’ health and safety, which impacts their response to the pandemic, public health messaging, and other factors in guiding their communities on how to remain healthy. Making decisions regarding resources was particularly difficult in Dallas, Texas, USA where local communities face stark differences in social determinants of health, such as availability of fresh foods and environmental pollution. We use an action design research approach to develop an index to assess vulnerability, which incorporates both long-term COVID-19 community risk measures and ongoing dynamic measures of the pandemic. Community and public health officials utilize the index in making critical policy and strategic decisions while guiding their communities during COVID-19 and in future crises.

AUTHORS
Thomas Roderick, PCCI, Yolande Pengetnze, PCCI, Steve Miff, PCCI, Monica Chiarini Tremblay, College of William and Mary, Rajiv Kohli, College of William and Mary

PCCI’s Vulnerability Index: Delta Variant Increasing Ongoing COVID Risk by 600 Percent

DALLAS – Due to low vaccination levels and new COVID-19 cases in Dallas County, the Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation’s COVID-19 Vulnerability Index has recorded a 600 percent aggregate increase between the end of June and the end of July 2021, primarily driven by the fast-spreading COVID-19 Delta variant.

The ZIP code with the highest Vulnerability Index, 75228, in East Dallas bordered by Interstates 30 and 635 and intersected by Highway 12, has a 19.76 vulnerability rating as of July 27, an increase of 17.95 over June 27. The ZIP code with the second highest Vulnerability Index rating, 75243 east of Highway 75 and intersected by Interstate 635, has a 19.66 vulnerability rating, an increase of 16.01 from June 27. The growth in these areas highlight increasing risk for Dallas County.

“Vaccinations help prevent the spread and reduce mortality of COVID-19,” said Thomas Roderick, PhD, Executive in Residence at PCCI. “Our latest Vulnerability Index report shows that COVID-19 risk is increasing, with new cases rising sharply among the unvaccinated. It is important to get the vaccine if you are medically able to do so, both for yourself, your young children, and for your neighbor who may not be able to receive a vaccination.”

One of the hardest hit ZIP Codes during the past year is 75211, which includes the areas around Cockrell Hill and Oak Cliff, which has a vulnerability rating of 14.75. It continues to be in the top 10 most vulnerable ZIP codes, though still far below its high of 157.96 registered in January 2021.

Launched in June of 2020, PCCI’s Vulnerability Index identifies communities at risk by examining comorbidity rates, including chronic illnesses such as hypertension, cancer, diabetes and heart disease; areas with a high density of populations over the age of 65; and increased social deprivation such as lack of access to food, medicine, employment and transportation. These factors are combined with behavioral

factors such as vaccination rates and confirmed COVID-19 cases where a vulnerability index value is scaled relative to July 2020’s COVID-19 peak value. The PCCI COVID-19 Vulnerability Index can be found on its COVID-19 Hub for Dallas County at: https://covid-analytics-pccinnovation.hub.arcgis.com/.

“Without question, vaccinations are the key to Dallas County getting through the Delta surge and hopefully ending the pandemic,” said George “Holt” Oliver, MD, Vice President of Clinical Informatics at PCCI. “The vaccinations for adults and children over 12 years old, are effective, easily obtained and quickly administered. We should all do our part to get vaccinated and encourage others to do the same. That is the way we will crush COVID.”

Data Sources:
To build Vulnerability Index, PCCI relied on data from Parkland Health & Hospital System, Dallas County Health and Human Services Department, the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council, U.S. Census, and SafeGraph.

About Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation
Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) is an independent, not-for-profit, healthcare intelligence organization affiliated with Parkland Health & Hospital System. PCCI leverages clinical expertise, data science and social determinants of health to address the needs of vulnerable populations. We believe that data, done right, has the power to galvanize communities, inform leaders, and empower people.

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PCCI CEO Statement – Dallas County Reaches Herd Immunity, More Work To Be Done

Statement from PCCI CEO Steve Miff:

“On July 4, Dallas County reached the 80 percent herd immunity threshold. This threshold is made up

by 46.6 percent of the total population being vaccinated and 48.7 percent of the population with natural immunity having recovered from being infected by COVID-19.

While this represents good progress, it is important that we understand the work is not over. We must continue to push for vaccinations so COVID and its variants can’t again take hold and diminish the progress we’ve made. Reaching the 80 percent herd immunity rate is not like flipping a switch, but a continuum in our journey.  It is an important accomplishment which is a credit to the residents and public health leaders who have committed themselves to crush COVID. While the whole community in average reached the 80 percent mark, there are only 49 ZIP codes above the 80 percent threshold with 45 ZIP codes still below the 80 percent mark. There are still significant pockets in the community that remain vulnerable.

How we got here

The calculations used to measure heard immunity track individual level data for both vaccinations administered and COVID test results since the beginning of the pandemic.  For those infected, yet not tested there are a 4x Adjusted Incidence Rate Ratio [AIRR] for the adult population and 5x for the pediatric group based on national and local seroprevalence data. The model also calculates an overlap 28 percent of vaccinated population of Dallas estimated to have had prior COVID-19 infection and recovered.

Delta Variant

Further, the current Delta variant is predicted to make up about 25 percent of COVID-19 cases locally, doubling approximately every two weeks. In one month, that could put the Delta variant in the range that has caused a new wave in infections in the UK, though their estimated immunity was below the herd immunity threshold for Delta.

The significantly higher viral loads and more infectious nature of the Delta variant could put the herd immunity target as high as 88 percent to suppress infection spikes when the Delta variant becomes the dominant variant in a few weeks’ time.

Vaccinations Lag

As a county, we’re still behind on vaccinations: Only 38 percent of the total population with completed vaccination series and 47 percent of the total population with at least one dose (61 percent of adults and 80 percent of those over the age of 65 years).  While previous infections and partial vaccinations do provide a level of protection, all evidence suggests that full vaccinations are the most effective way to stay safe against the delta variant.

Why is getting vaccinated still very important:

  • Infections remain very low for those vaccinated – local data from Parkland and the Dallas County Health & Human Services Department suggests an infection rate of only 0.04 percent for those vaccinated. Getting vaccinated doesn’t only protect you, but those around you, including the children who are not yet eligible for a vaccine.
  • Long COVID (prolonged COVID related symptoms such as fatigue, brain fog, muscle pain, shortness of breath, and loss of taste and smell) is prevalent in 10-30 percent of those infected and mortality for those unvaccinated is still a concern. Not getting vaccinated is rolling the dice on dying or dealing with long-term medical issues. 

The message is simple: don’t wait to get vaccinated. For those still hesitant, the safety and efficacy studies to date are overwhelmingly positive.  There are also two key upcoming milestones that should give further confidence to those who remain hesitant: Full FDA approvals for the mRNA vaccines expected in the upcoming weeks and approval for the under 12-year-old groups in the fall.”

-Steve Miff, PhD, President & CEO of Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) 

To monitor herd immunity and vaccination progress in Dallas County go to PCCI’s COVID-19 Vaccination and Herd Immunity Dashboard hosted on the Dallas County Health and Human Services’ website: https://www.dallascounty.org/covid-19/.

Background on PCCI’s herd immunity measurements

PCCI’s forecast for herd immunity is based on an innovative yet vetted statistical and immunological model and analysis of spread and management of diseases within communities. Further, PCCI’s 80 percent range for reaching herd immunity is in line with national estimates, such as that of Anthony S. Fauci, MD, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who recently gave a range of 70 to 90 percent and the World Health Organization which gave a 60 to 70 percent range of infections and vaccines to reach herd immunity*.

PCCI’s forecast and estimates have been developed in coordination with community health leaders in Dallas County, including the DCHHS and Parkland Health & Hospital System.  Recently, PCCI has been collaborating with the leadership and expert teams at the Institute for Health Improvement on modeling.

*New York Times, Dec. 24, 2020: “How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough?”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.html

 

News Release: PCCI, Dallas County Release COVID-19 Vaccination and Herd Immunity Dashboard

Dallas, Texas – Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI), which improves healthcare for vulnerable populations using advanced data science and clinical experts, has developed a COVID-19 Vaccination and Herd Immunity Dashboard to give residents of Dallas County up-to-date data about herd immunity levels, infections and vaccinations rates and corresponding demographic information.

The Dallas County Health and Human Services Department (DCHHS) will host the COVID-19 Vaccination and Herd Immunity Dashboard, which will supplement its rich set of COVID-19 resources. The COVID-19 Vaccination and Herd Immunity Dashboard can be accessed here: https://www.dallascounty.org/covid-19/

The COVID-19 Vaccination and Herd Immunity Dashboard provides exclusive data for Dallas County, including herd immunity by percentage of the county’s population at the ZIP code level. This is helpful for monitoring the county’s efforts to drive vaccination efforts to reach the herd immunity threshold of 80 percent of the whole county’s population who either have recovered from COVID-19 or who have received vaccinations. The dashboard’s data also includes vaccinations by manufacturer, estimated active COVID cases and important information resources about the pandemic.

“The COVID-19 Vaccination and Herd Immunity Dashboard provides the relevant available information to help estimate how far along Dallas County is toward reaching the herd immunity goal as well as the rates of vaccinations across the whole community,” DCHHS Director Dr. Philip Huang said. “It is important that we understand that once the indicators suggest that we are at the estimated herd immunity threshold, the work is not over. We need to continue the push for vaccinations, which is the crucial element to reaching herd immunity. The data in this dashboard will allow us to monitor our fight against COVID in every corner of the county in order for us to take the necessary steps to maintain our positive momentum.”

For each ZIP code in Dallas County, the COVID-19 Vaccination and Herd Immunity Dashboard also includes insightful, localized vaccination demographic information, such as ethnicity, age, sex and race. This data is used to continue to ensure equity in all our efforts and to continue to reach the population in the most convenient and effective way.

“This is critical information that we need to guide and coordinate our efforts. Dallas County is unique in the country for having these analytics available at such localized levels for all of our residents,” said Dr. Steve Miff, PCCI’s President and CEO. “The way we crush COVID is by coming together as a community and the information from the dashboard empowers everyone with knowledge on what is happening where they live― what the herd immunity level is and what the vaccination level is so they may act accordingly to maintain their safety and that of their families.”

In February, PCCI forecast that Dallas County would reach the 80 percent herd immunity threshold in June. However, that forecast has been pushed back to July due to slowing vaccination rates.

“Our progress toward herd immunity in Dallas County is making a difference as we have seen with slowing rates of community transmission, and it is so important that we aggressively continue our community efforts to vaccinate,” said Dr. Huang. “With the knowledge we gain from the COVID-19 Vaccination and Herd Immunity Dashboard, we can empower all our citizens with the information to stay safe. Vaccines are the best line of defense against COVID-19 and its variants, so it is critical that as many county residents as possible receive a vaccine.”

PCCI’s forecast for herd immunity is based on an innovative yet vetted statistical and immunological model and analysis of spread and management of diseases within communities. Further, PCCI’s 80 percent range for reaching herd immunity is in line with national estimates, such as that of Anthony S. Fauci, MD, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who recently gave a range of 70 to 90 percent and the World Health Organization which gave a 60 to 70 percent range of infections and vaccines to reach herd immunity*.

PCCI’s forecast and estimates have been developed in coordination with community health leaders in Dallas County, including the DCHHS and Parkland Health & Hospital System. Recently, PCCI has been collaborating with the leadership and expert teams at the Institute for Health Improvement on modeling.

The COVID-19 Vaccination and Herd Immunity Dashboard supports the Google Chrome, Microsoft Edge and Mozilla Firefox web browsers.

About Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation
Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) is an independent, not-for-profit, healthcare innovation organization affiliated with Parkland Health & Hospital System. PCCI leverages clinical expertise, data science and social determinants of health to address the needs of vulnerable populations.
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*New York Times, Dec. 24, 2020: “How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough?”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/24/health/herd-immunity-covid-coronavirus.html

PCCI’s 2020 Annual Impact Report

To give you a descriptive view into PCCI’s 2020, we have created an Annual Impact Report. This report provides highlights of our work during my fourth year at PCCI’s. Our accomplishments reflect not only our individual achievements, but our many collaborations and the community’s commitment to our mission. Specifically, this mission is powered by our people, innovative collaborators like Parkland Health & Hospital System (Parkland), Parkland Community Health Plan (PCHP), and many outstanding organizations that give us the support and purpose we need to champion each project we undertake. For this year, we have continued to produce impactful results for our stakeholders. As our mission expands, we will continue to seek like-minded organizations to work with us in pioneering new ways to health, especially for vulnerable and underserved populations.

To view the 2020 PCCI Annual Impact Report, please click the image below:

PCCI_AIR_FINAL_SINGLES

PCCI COVID-19 Update: Vaccinations Help Dallas County’s COVID-19 Risk Drop 40 Percent in May

DALLAS – Due to vaccination levels and reduction in new COVID-19 cases in Dallas County, the Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation’s COVID-19 Vulnerability Index has recorded a 40 percent drop in average vulnerability from April to the end of May.

The Vulnerability Index decrease can be attributed to a moderate increase in vaccines, a 10 percent increase in vaccinated people (partial or complete) month over month, and a 37 percent decrease in active cases.

The ZIP code with the highest Vulnerability Index, 75243, has a 12.20 vulnerability rating, however that was a decreased by 61 percent from April. This decrease was driven by vaccinations.

Most vulnerable zip codes. The cases have continued to reduce substantially month-over-month. (See list below)

“Thanks to the vaccination programs implemented throughout Dallas County, we continue to see progress in our fight against COVID-19,” said Thomas Roderick, PhD, Executive in Residence at PCCI. “Our latest Vulnerability Index report is the most positive yet, with new cases slowing and modest, but important participation in the vaccination program continuing. This progress is a credit to the outstanding efforts of our public health leaders and residents devoted to crushing COVID.”

One of the hardest hit ZIP Codes during the past year, 75211, which includes the areas around Cockrell Hill and Oak Cliff, continues to be in the top 10 most vulnerable ZIP codes, however, its May rating of 9.63, is a massive improvement over its high of 196.9 in January.

Launched in June of 2020, PCCI’s Vulnerability Index identifies communities at risk by examining comorbidity rates, including chronic illnesses such as hypertension, cancer, diabetes and heart disease; areas with a high density of populations over the age of 65; and increased social deprivation such as lack of access to food, medicine, employment and transportation. These factors are combined with dynamic mobility rates and confirmed COVID-19 cases where a vulnerability index value is scaled relative to July 2020’s COVID-19 peak value. The PCCI COVID-19 Vulnerability Index can be found on its COVID-19 Hub for Dallas County at: https://covid-analytics-pccinnovation.hub.arcgis.com/.

Recently, PCCI revised its COVID-19 herd immunity forecast, 80 percent of residents either having recovered from COVID-19 or having received a vaccination, from mid-June to July, due to a slowing rate of immunizations. However, as of the end of May, Dallas County is closing in on the 80 percent goal, at 75.5 percent herd immunity.

“Without question, vaccinations are the key to Dallas County reaching herd immunity,” said George “Holt” Oliver, MD, Vice President of Clinical Informatics at PCCI. “Vaccinations have been the primary reason we’ve seen a reduction in risk and why we are in sight of reaching the herd immunity threshold. The vaccinations for adults and children over 12 years old, are effective, easily obtained and quickly administered. We should all do our part to get vaccinated and encourage others to do the same. That is the way we will crush COVID.”

Data Sources:
To build Vulnerability Index, PCCI relied on data from Parkland Health & Hospital System, Dallas County Health and Human Services Department, the Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council, U.S. Census, and SafeGraph.

About Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation
Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) is an independent, not-for-profit, healthcare intelligence organization affiliated with Parkland Health & Hospital System. PCCI leverages clinical expertise, data science and social determinants of health to address the needs of vulnerable populations. We believe that data, done right, has the power to galvanize communities, inform leaders, and empower people.

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Herd Immunity Forecast For Dallas County Pushed Back to Late July

  • More natural immunity; decreasing vaccination rates   
  • Data from new UT Southwestern seroprevalence study raises PCCI’s county wide previously infected estimates to 48% of the total population;   
  • Herd immunity rate increases to 74 percent of the total population 
  • PCCI now forecasts Dallas County to surpass COVID herd immunity by late July 

Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) has updated its herd immunity forecast for COVID-19 in Dallas County. The new herd immunity analysis includes the up-to-date vaccination percentages for Dallas County as well as a change in the percentage of residents confirmed and presumed to have been infected. These factors indicate that the county’s herd immunity rate is now 74 percent of the total population. However, a continued decrease in vaccinations pushes reaching the herd immunity threshold of 80 percent of all residents either having been infected or being vaccinated towards late July. 

PCCI made its initial herd immunity forecast for Dallas County in February, where it predicted the county would reach the herd immunity threshold by mid-June.  

 “The most critical factor in the fight to crush COVID remains vaccinations for the whole population, particularly with the county’s younger, working population and the recently approved high school and middle school students,” said Steve Miff, PhD., PCCI’s President and CEO. “Convenience, missed work or school from vaccine side-effects, and concerns about providing identifications for the transient and un-documented populations remain as key barriers to vaccinations and continue to be a key decision driver for the 20-30 percent of the unvaccinated population who are not opposed to receiving a vaccine, but have not yet rolled up their sleeves.” 

 An important new UT Southwestern virologic study indicates a ratio of 1:4 for confirmed positive (tested and confirmed) to presumed infected (positive antibodies, but never tested) population for Dallas County.  With this information, PCCI has updated the presumed infected adult population from a 1:3 ratio to the 1:4 ratio. This increase in the presumed infected results also in adjustment of the vaccinated population of Dallas estimated to have had prior COVID-19 infection and recovered from 21 percent to 28 percent.   

 For vaccinations, the weekly average is slowing below 15,000 first doses/week despite new age group approval for 12-15-year-old. To date, 1,018,696 people in Dallas County have been vaccinated, with 798,775 being fully vaccinated.  This indicates that approximately 40 percent of the whole county population, 52 percent of the over 18-year-old population, and 77 percent of the over 65-year-old have received at least one dose of the vaccine.   

The net results increase the current county wide herd immunity rate to 74 percent of the total population.  Twenty-six Dallas County ZIP codes are estimated as surpassing the 80 percent threshold to date.  

  

 Figure Above: COVID-19 Herd Immunity Current State, Dallas County, May 13, 2021; base population based on US Census ACS 2019 5 year; values capped at maximum of 0.8 to show relative progress; eastern zip codes in county tend to be sparser and cover a larger area; estimates may have variance across county estimates; using 4x AIRR based on UTSW seroprevalence data as best local estimate. Overlap estimate of 28% of vaccinated population of Dallas estimated to have had prior COVID-19 infection and recovered. 

 Significant plans are already underway to address convenience and access. PCCI has created an updated Vulnerability Index calculation and identified the top 100 neighborhoods with the most unvaccinated individuals (map below).  The map shows areas of low vaccination rates sprinkled across north and central Dallas County, but it indicates large sections of the southern half of the county have many unvaccinated. These areas in south Dallas often experience transportation gaps to access certain vaccination sites.  

Dallas County, City of Dallas and the Parkland Health and Hospital System are coordinating efforts to bring local community vaccination clinics to high risk, high opportunity locations.  There are 29 recent, active, and planned community locations to where individual can receive a COVID vaccine in their own neighborhood.   These are in addition to the local pharmacies, physician offices and other activities by many local health systems.   

  

Above Image: The dotted red areas indicate neighborhoods with highest numbers of unvaccinated individuals. 

“With this new analysis, we are able to pinpoint where the least vaccinated populations are in the county,” said Dr. Miff. “Our public health leaders are taking action and making progress toward reaching those areas, but each of us can take responsibility to quickly receive our vaccine and encourage our friends and neighbors to do the same, especially for those who live in neighborhoods with the low vaccination rates. Vaccines are the fastest and safest way we can get back to any sort of normal.” 

Why does it matter that we get to herd immunity through vaccinations instead of infection? 

Reaching herd immunity will significantly reduce the spread of the virus but reaching the 80 percent with equal numbers of vaccinated and natural immunity populations will not make the virus go away. For areas already at or above 80 percent, and for the rest of the county, until vaccination rates increase, there will likely continue to be low levels of constant infections, hospitalizations and periodic deaths.   

 “The virus will continue to linger in the background at relatively low and steady rates, with the periodic flareup. The best thing we can do is continue to vaccinate to reach and surpass the 80 percent vaccination mark and then drive both personal and community protection through the vaccines,” said Dr. George ‘Holt’ Oliver, Vice President of clinical Informatics at PCCI. 

 For more information about how PCCI has taken the fight to COVID-19, go to: https://pcci1.wpengine.com/taking-the-fight-to-covid-19/. 

 About Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation  

Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation (PCCI) is an independent, not-for-profit, healthcare intelligence organization affiliated with Parkland Health & Hospital System. PCCI leverages clinical expertise, data science and social determinants of health to address the needs of vulnerable populations.   

  

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AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MANAGED CARE: Timely Preterm-Birth Prediction Among Pregnant Women in Medicaid Without Preterm-Birth History

The American Journal of Managed Care (AJMC), which delivers direct access and engagement of professional audiences by providing multichannel sources of trusted health care and scientific information, has published a peer review articled about a preterm birth prevention program pioneered by PCCI, Parkland and the Parkland Community Health Plan.

The article, titled “Timely Preterm-Birth Prediction Among Pregnant Women in Medicaid Without Preterm-Birth History,” examines how Parkland, PCCI and PCHP experts developed a novel prediction model that accurately predicts preterm birth in a timely manner among pregnant women in Medicaid without preterm-birth history.

To read the article in a PDF form, go to:

https://cdn.sanity.io/files/0vv8moc6/ajmc/ccfe23a271d8eb13e232bd68a5c4e0d9a69bdd0d.pdf

For the web article, go to:

https://www.ajmc.com/view/timely-preterm-birth-prediction-among-pregnant-women-in-medicaid-without-preterm-birth-history